Study: Heat Spreading Ocean Currents Could Collapse by Midcentury
2023-08-04
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1A new study has predicted that a system of ocean currents that transports warm water northward could collapse in the next 70 years.
2Climate scientists have warned that such collapse could cause sea level rise in the U.S. and extreme weather in Europe.
3The currents spread, or circulate, water in the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains.
4The currents carry warm water north and cold water south.
5Two years ago, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said it was unlikely that ocean currents would cause disastrous conditions in the next 80 years or so.
6However, the new study recently published in Nature Communications suggests that the huge ocean current system might collapse sooner than some scientists believe.
7Altogether, the currents studied by the scientists are known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, or AMOC.
8It circulates water throughout the Atlantic Ocean.
9The circulation is very lengthy, taking an estimated 1,000 years to complete.
10But NOAA says the circulation has been slowing since the mid-1990s.
11The Atlantic current called the Gulf Stream is part of this huge current system, NOAA says.
12Scientists in the United States and Germany have warned that a further slowdown or complete halt to the circulation process could create more extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere.
13It could also cause sea-level rise on the U.S. East Coast and drought in southern Africa.
14But predictions about the possible timing remain unclear.
15In the new study, Danish researchers Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen examined sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic between 1870 and 2020.
16Under current conditions, they have suggested the circulation system could collapse as soon as 2025 or as late as 2095.
17Their prediction is different from a prediction made by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2021.
18The IPCC said the collapse was not likely to happen before 2100.
19Julio Friedmann is chief scientist at New York City-based Carbon Direct, a carbon management company.
20He said in a statement he thinks the latest study makes clear that "action must be swift and profound" to reduce major climate risks.
21Stefan Rahmstorf co-wrote a 2018 study on ocean currents in the Atlantic.
22He also published his comments about the Danish-led study on the website RealClimate.
23Rahmstorf noted that the timing of a collapse of Atlantic Ocean currents remains "highly uncertain."
24He added that he finds the IPCC's estimate conservative.
25"Increasingly, the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 percent during this century," Rahmstorf wrote.
26He added that the problem is likely to remain "...rather worrying for the next few decades."
27I'm Bryan Lynn.
1A new study has predicted that a system of ocean currents that transports warm water northward could collapse in the next 70 years. 2Climate scientists have warned that such collapse could cause sea level rise in the U.S. and extreme weather in Europe. 3The currents spread, or circulate, water in the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains. The currents carry warm water north and cold water south. 4Two years ago, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said it was unlikely that ocean currents would cause disastrous conditions in the next 80 years or so. 5However, the new study recently published in Nature Communications suggests that the huge ocean current system might collapse sooner than some scientists believe. 6Altogether, the currents studied by the scientists are known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, or AMOC. It circulates water throughout the Atlantic Ocean. The circulation is very lengthy, taking an estimated 1,000 years to complete. But NOAA says the circulation has been slowing since the mid-1990s. 7The Atlantic current called the Gulf Stream is part of this huge current system, NOAA says. 8Scientists in the United States and Germany have warned that a further slowdown or complete halt to the circulation process could create more extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere. It could also cause sea-level rise on the U.S. East Coast and drought in southern Africa. But predictions about the possible timing remain unclear. 9In the new study, Danish researchers Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen examined sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic between 1870 and 2020. Under current conditions, they have suggested the circulation system could collapse as soon as 2025 or as late as 2095. 10Their prediction is different from a prediction made by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2021. The IPCC said the collapse was not likely to happen before 2100. 11Julio Friedmann is chief scientist at New York City-based Carbon Direct, a carbon management company. He said in a statement he thinks the latest study makes clear that "action must be swift and profound" to reduce major climate risks. 12Stefan Rahmstorf co-wrote a 2018 study on ocean currents in the Atlantic. He also published his comments about the Danish-led study on the website RealClimate. Rahmstorf noted that the timing of a collapse of Atlantic Ocean currents remains "highly uncertain." 13He added that he finds the IPCC's estimate conservative. "Increasingly, the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 percent during this century," Rahmstorf wrote. He added that the problem is likely to remain "...rather worrying for the next few decades." 14I'm Bryan Lynn. 15The Associated Press reported this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the report for VOA Learning English. 16_____________________________________________ 17Words in This Story 18drought - n. a long period of time during which there is very little or no rain 19swift - adj. happening or moving quickly 20profound - adj. very great or intense 21uncertain - adj. not sure about something 22decade - n. a period of ten years 23__________________________________________________ 24What do you think of this story? We want to hear from you. We have a new comment system. Here is how it works: 25Each time you return to comment on the Learning English site, you can use your account and see your comments and replies to them. Our comment policy is here.